Photo source: ILO Asia Pacific

Phrases like the ‘New Normal’ and ‘The Big Reset’ continue to be casually thrown around, but where are we in terms of actual recovery? While there are some signs of progress, the journey from hurt to healed is a long, slow one and our latest study on people’s perceptions reflects this.

In year-end polling by Blackbox Research and ADNA covering over 9,000 respondents from key Southeast Asian countries—Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—most people in the region felt that things neither got better nor worse in 2022. In other words, things remain static for many.

Just over half (51%) felt that 2022 was unchanged for them while around a third experienced or perceived improvement whether it was personally, financially, or nationally. 

What Progress Are We Seeing in Southeast Asia

From a country perspective, Singaporeans (51%) were most likely to feel genuine improvement last year. Meanwhile, Thais (38%), Malaysians, (36%), Indonesians (34%), and Vietnamese (33%) say they have seen some improvements in their life prospects over the last year. The election of a new government in Malaysia and the return of tourism at popular resorts like Phuket may have fuelled optimism among Malaysians and Thais. The reduction in Covid-19 measures and the declaration of a new capital, Nusantara, is symbolic of the Indonesian Government getting on track to push for economic recovery in ASEAN’s largest economy.

2022 has also seen the Vietnamese economy recovering sharply to 7.5% according to ADB estimates though fuel shortages across the country have been a cause for concern.

In contrast to their neighbours, Filipinos feel the least amount of improvement (only 20%). The Philippines, in particular, experienced a tough pandemic and a tumultuous presidential election that occurred amidst protests and allegations of electoral fraud, all of which contributed to a bleak outlook for many. As such, 2023 will be a key recovery year for the Philippines, given their currently flagging economy which is yet to recover post travel restrictions and continued reliance on overseas remittances to boost income.

Optimistically, approximately 1 in 3 Southeast Asians felt that their countries have made some progress in 2022 compared to 2021, with 62% opining that their country has stayed the same in 2022. Strong fiscal and monetary policies from the Singapore Government have fuelled the optimism seen among Singaporeans (45%). Another factor may have been the island nation’s growing competitive advantage over Hong Kong, recently dethroning the latter as Asia’s top financial hub.

Financial:  Bank Balances Not Improving

More than half (56%) of respondents across the region reported little to no change in their financial situation in 2022 compared to 2021. While the global economy cranked up and borders reopened, inflation and rising interest rates have put a dampener on post-COVID recovery.

Generational differences are also emerging across some parts in Southeast Asia. Most of those who believe 2022 did not change from 2021 financially are in the younger cohort, especially in Indonesia and Vietnam where the difference in perceptions is particularly stark (over 20%). Facing inflation, high energy prices, taxes and uncertain economic policies, the youth of Southeast Asia do not necessarily share the same degree of optimism as their older counterparts and will expect more from their governments.

As Southeast Asians leave behind another year, current sentiment is clear. Moving away from the devastating effects of Covid-19, the costly policies to mitigate the virus’ effects, and global headwinds, 2022 was a year of only partial recovery. Yet, as the region moves into the new year, similar questions will emerge—how countries in the region contain inflation, the ongoing impacts of economic transformation, an uncertain global trading environment, and the right policies to generate fresh economic growth. 

Keen on understanding how Southeast Asians cope with these challenges in 2023 or how businesses and policymakers can push forward new ideas in the current climate of uncertainty? Reach out to us via connect@blackbox.com.sg